Publications, Resources

CVF NDC Traffic Light Assessment Report

CVF NDC Traffic Light Assessment Report

This new report provides an assessment of current NDC’s alignment with the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to 1.5ºC.

It differs from most assessments in that these often unfairly grandfather emissions trajectories by taking current (i.e. 2022) emissions as a starting point. In accordance with the principle that every human being has an equal access to and responsibility for the atmosphere, the new CVF report calculates emissions allocations using the UN Climate Convention’s base year of 1990, when the first IPCC report was produced, as a starting year. These budgets are then adjusted using both GDP and the Human Development Index to account for countries’ differing capacities to undertake emissions cuts.

The report shows:

  • The G7, with 25% of current emissions, has taken the world on track for more than 3ºC of warming with its members’ NDCs having already fully exhausted its 1.5 ºC carbon budget on a fair shares basis.
  • The CVF, with 5% of global emissions and 1.5 billion total population, is however fully compliant with the Paris Agreement 1.5ºC goal on a fair shares basis.
  • Currently the COP27 negotiations imply that the Africa Group, LDCs, and CVF nations not only already have their atmospheric space taken by richer countries, but will also not be provided sufficient, much-needed adaptation finance and loss and damage funding even as they suffer accelerating climate impacts caused by those who have already long exceeded their carbon budgets.
  • COP26’s Glasgow Climate Pact bound all countries to review their 2030 NDC targets in 2022 for alignment with 1.5ºC and to strengthen those that fall short this year.
  • This report shows that the G7 for example would have to cut its emissions by 82% below current levels immediately, and 91% below its 2030 NDC targets, to be 1.5ºC compatible on a fair shares basis.
  • The Umbrella Group would need to cut its current emissions by 95%, and be 107% below its 2030 NDC targets (i.e. becoming carbon negative), to be 1.5ºC compatible on a fair shares basis.

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